Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Dolphins vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-117) after it opened @ 56.5 (-113).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect Derrick Henry to garner 16.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Derrick Henry has been one of the top running backs in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a fantastic 3.20 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are heavy underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans to run on 41.0% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
- Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The opposing side have run for the 9th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 98.0 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
