Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-112/-117).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-117) after it opened @ 56.5 (-113).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect Derrick Henry to garner 16.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Derrick Henry has been one of the top running backs in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a fantastic 3.20 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 85th percentile.

Cons

The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are heavy underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans to run on 41.0% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The opposing side have run for the 9th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 98.0 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards