Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Chuba HubbardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Saints vs. Panthers
Right now, Chuba Hubbard’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-114).
Pros
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Panthers are projected by the projections to call 66.8 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-most among all teams this week.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 62.5 plays per game.
- In this game, Chuba Hubbard is projected by the projection model to finish in the 89th percentile among RBs with 17.0 rush attempts.
- The model projects Chuba Hubbard to be much more involved in his team’s running game in this week’s game (62.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (47.4% in games he has played).
- This year, the tough New Orleans Saints run defense has conceded a meager 4.64 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 24th-lowest rate in football.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- A throwing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Chuba Hubbard’s rushing effectiveness has worsened this year, totaling a measly 3.91 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.73 rate last year.
- The Saints linebackers profile as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards
74
Rushing Yards
