Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-125) after it opened @ 60.5 (-105).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are predicted by the projections to call 65.1 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-most on the slate this week.
- In this week’s game, Isiah Pacheco is expected by the projection model to find himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.7 rush attempts.
- Isiah Pacheco has been much more involved in his offense’s run game this season (64.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (40.9%).
- Isiah Pacheco has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (68.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
- This year, the fierce Buffalo Bills run defense has surrendered a meager 4.79 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 29th-lowest rate in the league.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
