NFL

Bets

December 7, 2023

Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Isiah Pacheco from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Isiah PachecoRushing Yards

Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-125) after it opened @ 60.5 (-105).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are predicted by the projections to call 65.1 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-most on the slate this week.
In this week’s game, Isiah Pacheco is expected by the projection model to find himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.7 rush attempts.
Isiah Pacheco has been much more involved in his offense’s run game this season (64.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (40.9%).
Isiah Pacheco has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (68.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
This year, the fierce Buffalo Bills run defense has surrendered a meager 4.79 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 29th-lowest rate in the league.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards