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December 6, 2023

Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

This game’s line implies an extreme rushing game script for the 49ers, who are heavily favored by 14.5 points.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 49.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, Christian McCaffrey is anticipated by the predictive model to finish in the 99th percentile among running backs with 21.4 carries.
As it relates to opening holes for runners (and the significance it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the 49ers ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL last year.
Christian McCaffrey has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (94.0) this year than he did last year (68.0).

Cons

The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (just 53.6 per game on average).
Christian McCaffrey’s 82.9% snap rate this year represents a noteworthy growth in his offensive utilization over last year’s 71.5% mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
102
Rushing Yards