NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Jaylen WarrenRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Jaylen Warren’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-115/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-115) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).
Pros
- A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Steelers to run on 47.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
- Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his offense’s ground game this season (32.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (16.3%).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
- Jaylen Warren has run for a lot more adjusted yards per game (45.0) this year than he did last year (23.0).
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Steelers to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
- This year, the anemic New England Patriots run defense has allowed a colossal 3.59 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 32nd-worst rate in the NFL.
- The New England Patriots safeties project as the best unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
