Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jaylen Warren from EV Insight

Jaylen WarrenRushing Yards

Right now, Jaylen Warren’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-115/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-115) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).

Pros

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Steelers to run on 47.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his offense’s ground game this season (32.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (16.3%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
Jaylen Warren has run for a lot more adjusted yards per game (45.0) this year than he did last year (23.0).

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Steelers to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
This year, the anemic New England Patriots run defense has allowed a colossal 3.59 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 32nd-worst rate in the NFL.
The New England Patriots safeties project as the best unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards