Week 14 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

I feel we had the right read and wrong outcome in our Week 13 moneyline pick.

The New England defense was strong, but the loss of running back Rhamondre Stevenson to injury in the first quarter killed our chances at a Patriots moneyline victory. Regardless, we return to our process for Week 14.

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished.

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.

Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 14 of the 2023 season

Week 14 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings

(+140, FanDuel Sportsbook)

We are in the midst of the Joshua Dobbs regression to the mean.

The 28-year-old Minnesota quarterback played very well for most of the season but has started to struggle over the past few weeks. He has thrown just one touchdown pass in three straight games and is coming off a concerning four-interception performance against Chicago before the bye.

The potential return of wide receiver Justin Jefferson has jumped this moneyline to +140, but I have my doubts on Dobbs’ ability to utilize the star wideout. Minnesota’s rushing attack has also been anemic all season, ranking 29th in rush offense DVOA, only ranking ahead of the Texans, Giants and Jets. I don’t see why the Vikings are the favorite in this game, as all their season-long metrics are skewed by their success with Kirk Cousins and Jefferson.

Las Vegas has been much more competitive under interim head coach Antonio Pierce. They defeated the Giants and Jets at home, lost a close game (20-13) at Miami, and led the Chiefs 14-0 at home. Pierce’s tenure has also coincides with a reemergence of running back Josh Jacobs, who posted his two 100-year plus rushing performances in the past two weeks. In those games he has averaged season-high averages of 4.3 and 5.5 YPC.

Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell has been extremely successful ATS in these situations, going 5-0-1 ATS as a road favorite. However, those games were with Cousins as quarterback and a healthy Jefferson. This is a completely different team. The Vikings also have a -8 turnover differential, third-worst in the NFL.

I’m taking the Raiders as moneyline home underdogs against an overrated Vikings team with much different personnel than most of the season.