Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-127) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 16.5 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has generated 58.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in football among RBs (79th percentile).

Cons

The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The San Francisco 49ers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards