Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 99.5 (-110) after it opened @ 95.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accumulate 12.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
Tyreek Hill has posted a lot more receiving yards per game (106.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).

Cons

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.7 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
112
Receiving Yards