NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Jets vs. Texans
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- At a mere 27.04 seconds per play, the Jets offense checks in as the 10th-quickest paced in football (adjusted for context) this year.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
- The predictive model expects Breece Hall to accrue 16.2 carries in this week’s game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Among all running backs, Breece Hall grades out in the 89th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 56.0% of the workload in his team’s ground game.
- The Houston defensive tackles profile as the worst collection of DTs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
Cons
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The predictive model expects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.6% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Breece Hall has rushed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (66.0).
- The Houston Texans defense owns the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 3.64 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
