Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Breece Hall from EV Insight

Breece HallRushing Yards

Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

At a mere 27.04 seconds per play, the Jets offense checks in as the 10th-quickest paced in football (adjusted for context) this year.
Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
The predictive model expects Breece Hall to accrue 16.2 carries in this week’s game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Among all running backs, Breece Hall grades out in the 89th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 56.0% of the workload in his team’s ground game.
The Houston defensive tackles profile as the worst collection of DTs in football this year in regard to defending the run.

Cons

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The predictive model expects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.6% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Breece Hall has rushed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (66.0).
The Houston Texans defense owns the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 3.64 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards