Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Joe FlaccoPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Browns vs. Jaguars
Right now, Joe Flacco’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 209.5 (-115) after it opened @ 193.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns may throw the ball less in this week’s game (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a massive 66.3 per game on average).
- The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Browns as the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects Joe Flacco to attempt 31.6 passes in this game, on average: the 11th-fewest out of all QBs.
- Joe Flacco’s passing precision has declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 58.0% to 52.5%.
- Joe Flacco grades out as one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a measly 5.60 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 17th percentile.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Jacksonville’s collection of CBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
185
Passing Yards
185
Passing Yards
