Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for David Njoku from EV Insight

David NjokuReceiving Yards

Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).

Pros

The Browns may throw the ball less in this week’s game (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a massive 66.3 per game on average).
The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast David Njoku to accrue 6.7 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Browns as the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
David Njoku has notched far fewer air yards this year (27.0 per game) than he did last year (45.0 per game).
David Njoku’s 43.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year marks a noteworthy regression in his receiving ability over last year’s 50.0 rate.
David Njoku’s 64.9% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a meaningful decrease in his receiving ability over last year’s 77.2% rate.
David Njoku’s pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, averaging just 6.26 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.91 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards