Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Browns vs. Jaguars
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Browns may throw the ball less in this week’s game (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a massive 66.3 per game on average).
- The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.
- The leading projections forecast David Njoku to accrue 6.7 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Browns as the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- David Njoku has notched far fewer air yards this year (27.0 per game) than he did last year (45.0 per game).
- David Njoku’s 43.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year marks a noteworthy regression in his receiving ability over last year’s 50.0 rate.
- David Njoku’s 64.9% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a meaningful decrease in his receiving ability over last year’s 77.2% rate.
- David Njoku’s pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, averaging just 6.26 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.91 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
