Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (+108/-148).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-148) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- A running game script is suggested by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite this week.
- This week, Austin Ekeler is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 77th percentile among RBs with 13.1 rush attempts.
- With a remarkable rate of 50.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (75th percentile), Austin Ekeler ranks as one of the top running backs in football this year.
- This year, the weak Broncos run defense has yielded a monstrous 155.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the most in football.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers as the 7th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.5% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.
- The Los Angeles Chargers O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
- Austin Ekeler’s running efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling a measly 3.54 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.87 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
