Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Austin Ekeler from EV Insight

Austin EkelerRushing Yards

Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (+108/-148).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-148) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
A running game script is suggested by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite this week.
This week, Austin Ekeler is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 77th percentile among RBs with 13.1 rush attempts.
With a remarkable rate of 50.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (75th percentile), Austin Ekeler ranks as one of the top running backs in football this year.
This year, the weak Broncos run defense has yielded a monstrous 155.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the most in football.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers as the 7th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.5% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
Austin Ekeler’s running efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling a measly 3.54 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.87 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards