Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alexander MattisonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Raiders vs. Vikings
Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-110).
Pros
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.
- In this game, Alexander Mattison is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs with 13.0 carries.
- Alexander Mattison has been much more involved in his offense’s run game this season (56.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (17.8%).
- Alexander Mattison’s 49.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season reflects a meaningful improvement in his rushing prowess over last season’s 16.0 mark.
- The Raiders defense has produced the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering 4.71 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Vikings may throw the ball less in this week’s game (and call more rushes) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Vikings to run on 39.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are forecasted by the projection model to run just 64.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
- The Raiders defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
