Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zay Flowers from EV Insight

Zay FlowersReceiving Yards

Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
With a remarkable 92.5% Route Participation Rate (89th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands among the wideouts with the most usage in football.
With an excellent 76.5% Adjusted Catch Rate (94th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among wideouts.

Cons

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are heavily favored in this week’s game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This year, the imposing Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered a meager 55.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the lowest rate in the NFL.
This year, the daunting Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wideouts: a mere 7.1 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards