Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Ravens vs. Rams
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- With a remarkable 92.5% Route Participation Rate (89th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands among the wideouts with the most usage in football.
- With an excellent 76.5% Adjusted Catch Rate (94th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among wideouts.
Cons
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are heavily favored in this week’s game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- This year, the imposing Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered a meager 55.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the lowest rate in the NFL.
- This year, the daunting Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wideouts: a mere 7.1 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
