NFL

Bets

December 6, 2023

Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Wan’Dale Robinson from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Wan’Dale RobinsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Wan’Dale Robinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (+106/-137).

The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (+106) after it opened @ 26.5 (-117).

Pros

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.
Wan’Dale Robinson’s ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 77.9% to 81.4%.
The Packers pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68%) vs. wide receivers this year (68.0%).

Cons

The model projects the Giants as the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 129.8 total plays called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Packers, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.6 per game) this year.
After accruing 30.0 air yards per game last season, Wan’Dale Robinson has posted significant losses this season, currently pacing 17.0 per game.
Wan’Dale Robinson’s 31.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 40.2.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards