Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Wan’Dale RobinsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Giants vs. Packers
Right now, Wan’Dale Robinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (+106/-137).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (+106) after it opened @ 26.5 (-117).
Pros
- At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.
- Wan’Dale Robinson’s ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 77.9% to 81.4%.
- The Packers pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68%) vs. wide receivers this year (68.0%).
Cons
- The model projects the Giants as the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 129.8 total plays called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
- Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Packers, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.6 per game) this year.
- After accruing 30.0 air yards per game last season, Wan’Dale Robinson has posted significant losses this season, currently pacing 17.0 per game.
- Wan’Dale Robinson’s 31.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 40.2.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
