Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tucker KraftReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Giants vs. Packers
Right now, Tucker Kraft’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect Tucker Kraft to accrue 4.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
- While Tucker Kraft has been responsible for 3.4% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Green Bay’s passing offense this week at 14.8%.
- Tucker Kraft ranks as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a stellar 8.56 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 75th percentile.
- Tucker Kraft comes in as one of the best tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging an outstanding 7.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 81st percentile.
- The New York Giants pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the league.
Cons
- With a 5.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Packers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 57.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by the projections to run only 63.9 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.9 plays per game.
- The Giants pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (60.7%) to tight ends this year (60.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
