Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+110/-143).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-143) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).

Pros

The Vikings may throw the ball less in this week’s game (and call more rushes) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
The leading projections forecast T.J. Hockenson to accrue 8.3 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has conceded the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (53.0) to TEs this year.

Cons

This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are forecasted by the projection model to run just 64.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
T.J. Hockenson’s 3.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a substantial decrease in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year’s 6.2% figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards