Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Raiders vs. Vikings
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+110/-143).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-143) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Vikings may throw the ball less in this week’s game (and call more rushes) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
- The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
- The leading projections forecast T.J. Hockenson to accrue 8.3 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has conceded the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (53.0) to TEs this year.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are forecasted by the projection model to run just 64.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
- T.J. Hockenson’s 3.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a substantial decrease in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year’s 6.2% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
