Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 76.5 (-110) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
- Stefon Diggs has put up significantly more receiving yards per game (102.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).
Cons
- The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- The New York Jets defense has conceded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 124.0) to WRs this year.
- The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (61.5%) vs. wideouts this year (61.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
