Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-136/+105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (+105) after it opened @ 71.5 (-114).

Pros

The model projects the Bills to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Stefon Diggs to notch 10.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 29.5% this year, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has compiled a whopping 102.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.

Cons

In terms of a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.97 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
Stefon Diggs’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a measly 8.57 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.62 mark last year.
The Chiefs pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. wideouts this year, yielding 7.75 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards