Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-104/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-104) after it opened @ 45.5 (-113).
Pros
- The 6th-most plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Bears defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- This week, Sam LaPorta is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.8 targets.
- In regards to air yards, Sam LaPorta grades out in the lofty 96th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a whopping 53.0 per game.
- Sam LaPorta checks in as one of the top pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a fantastic 53.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
- The model projects the Lions as the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 62.4 total plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
- This year, the strong Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a mere 3.1 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
