Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Sam LaPorta from EV Insight

Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards

Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-104/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-104) after it opened @ 45.5 (-113).

Pros

The 6th-most plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Bears defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
This week, Sam LaPorta is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.8 targets.
In regards to air yards, Sam LaPorta grades out in the lofty 96th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a whopping 53.0 per game.
Sam LaPorta checks in as one of the top pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a fantastic 53.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
The model projects the Lions as the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 62.4 total plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
This year, the strong Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a mere 3.1 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards