Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Puka NacuaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Ravens vs. Rams
Right now, Puka Nacua’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+110/-141).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-113).
Pros
- At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Rams are giant underdogs in this week’s game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams as the 9th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect the Rams offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.07 seconds per play.
- The Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (39.1 per game) this year.
- Puka Nacua comes in as one of the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 83.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
Cons
- This year, the tough Baltimore Ravens defense has conceded a puny 133.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-best in football.
- The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus wide receivers this year, surrendering 6.26 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in football.
- As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore’s group of safeties has been fantastic this year, projecting as the best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
