Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Steelers vs. Ravens
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-111/-123).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-123) after it opened @ 46.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.7 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 6.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
- Pat Freiermuth has been a more important option in his team’s pass game this year (20.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (12.8%).
- Pat Freiermuth has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (59.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Pat Freiermuth’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 68.6%.
- The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends rank as the 9th-best collection of DEs in football this year with their pass rush.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
