Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael MayerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Raiders vs. Vikings
Right now, Michael Mayer’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 25.5 (+100).
Pros
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3-point underdogs.
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game against the Vikings defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
- Michael Mayer has played on 60.8% of his offense’s snaps this year, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- With a remarkable 8.1 adjusted yards per target (81st percentile) this year, Michael Mayer places among the leading pass-game tight ends in football.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Raiders to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.9% pass rate.
- The model projects the Raiders to call the 4th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Raiders have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- This year, the stout Vikings defense has given up the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing tight ends: a measly 6.5 yards.
- The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
