Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.
- The predictive model expects Keenan Allen to garner 11.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
- After totaling 89.0 air yards per game last season, Keenan Allen has undergone big improvement this season, now boasting 106.0 per game.
- Keenan Allen’s 102.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a material gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 80.0 rate.
Cons
- The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- A running game script is suggested by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Broncos defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
104
Receiving Yards
104
Receiving Yards
