Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Saints vs. Panthers
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).
Pros
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have 134.1 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 63.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- In this contest, Juwan Johnson is projected by the projections to finish in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.3 targets.
- The Panthers pass defense has displayed weak efficiency vs. tight ends this year, conceding 8.29 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the league.
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Saints being a 5.5-point favorite this week.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
- Juwan Johnson has posted far fewer air yards this season (29.0 per game) than he did last season (37.0 per game).
- Juwan Johnson’s 24.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 30.4.
- Juwan Johnson has notched substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (19.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
