Best College Basketball Bets Today (Saturday 12/9)

The 2023-24 college basketball season is underway. We have some fun non-conference matchups around the country, and this Saturday schedule is absolutely loaded. Below is my favorite bet of the slate. Let’s have some fun.

Utah vs. BYU

BYU -3.5, DraftKings Sportsbook

In-state rivals BYU and Utah square off in Salt Lake City in what should be a raucous environment for BYU’s first true road game. After his success at Utah State, it was only a matter of time before Craig Smith and his Utes broke out for a great season, and this is looking like the year behind all-conference center Branden Carlson. BYU, on the other hand, is blazing out of the gates with an 8-0 record and has climbed all the way to the No. 6 ranking per KenPom. BYU is super talented across the board, and head coach Mark Pope has consistently won in his four-year stint, but I think this is a perfect sell-high spot against an extremely solid and well-coached Utah squad.

The first thing you notice when diving into the matchup is BYU’s insane 3pt FG% splits, as they only have allowed opponents to shoot 22.4% from three (second nationally per KenPom) while shooting 39.2% themselves. Yes, BYU’s defense runs shooters off the three-point line and funnels drivers to the rim, but it’s hard to imagine opponents continuing to shoot that poorly against them, especially a team like Utah (assisting on 58.9% of their made baskets). Utah has the ultimate mismatch in Carlson, who should be the difference in this game, and their packed in defense will force BYU to beat them over the top with three-pointers. In the Cougars’ first true road game of the season at altitude, I think we start seeing BYU come back down to earth and some regression in their 3-point shooting splits (ShotQuality has their luck rating at -13.26). Smith should put together a solid game plan and pull this one out at home.

The Pick

Utah +3.5, will play ML as well