Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Lions vs. Vikings
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 95.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 95.5 (-115) after it opened @ 93.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- Justin Jefferson has posted significantly more receiving yards per game (105.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).
Cons
- Justin Jefferson has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
- Justin Jefferson’s 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
111
Receiving Yards
111
Receiving Yards
