Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
As we get deeper and deeper into the season, these underwhelming prime-time games get even more disappointing. While Rams vs. Raiders once profiled as an intense matchup between two playoff hopefuls, both teams have been very disappointing. According to the Athletic’s model, the Raiders have just a 7.5% chance to make the playoffs, meaning a lot would have to go right for that to happen. On the other side, the Rams are in a very surprising situation where they have one of the worst records in football and don’t even own their first-round pick, so it’s not like they’re tanking for anything — they’re just bad.
One of the things that makes betting on this game tough is we still don’t know who’s going to be quarterback for the Rams. While we saw John Wolford take over for Bryce Perkins last week, it’s not being reported that Baker Mayfield is in the mix. I think it’s pretty clear that checkdown artist Wolford will be starting, as it would be insane for Baker to only have two days to learn a new playbook before Thursday night. On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams are still strong, currently touting a top-three rush defense and a solid pass defense (mostly just Jalen Ramsey). They will be missing defensive lineman Aaron Donald, meaning that line likely won’t be as scary.
Here’s my bet for Thursday’s game.
Ernest Jones Over 7.5 Tackles + Assists
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Because of the Davante Adams effect, the Raiders have faced the most 2-high shell looks in the NFL this season, which is especially surprising considering the season Josh Jacobs is having. Since defenses are playing them this way, the Raiders are leaning into the run game, forcing a lot of work for opposing linebackers. It was tough for me deciding between Bobby Wagner and Ernest Jones, considering there are pros and cons for both guys. Wagner is the clear lead and will get the first crack at it, but at this point in his career there are risks for his involvement later in this game, especially if the Raiders have a commanding lead. While Jones isn’t the all-around linebacker Wagner is, he’s been great in the run defending game this season.
Jacobs is likely going to carry the ball 25-plus times once again, making the opposing linebackers juicy targets. Just two weeks ago, we saw Wagner’s replacement in Seattle Jordyn Brooks secure 16 tackles against this Raiders team, with Cody Barton grabbing another 12. Previously we saw Zaire Franklin with 10, Foyesade Oluokun with 9, Pete Werner with 11 and Christian Kirksey with 9. While Wagner may be trusted to contribute more across the field, I’m taking a chance on the younger Jones, in hopes that he has the run game locked down.
Jones’ hit rates are better than Wagner in recent weeks as well, going over 7.5 tackles + assists in four of his last five games. More importantly, when opposing lead backs saw at least 20 carries, he has shined, recording 10 and 11 tackles in those two games (Isiah Pacheco and James Conner were also both held under 4 YPC). I think we’ll see plenty of two-LB sets from the Rams, in hopes of slowing down this lethal run game. I also do think the Raiders will be leading this game, meaning a positive gamescript for the run, and more opportunities for both Jones and Wagner to build up those tackles and assists.
