Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Raiders vs. Vikings
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 73.5 (-133) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Vikings may throw the ball less in this week’s game (and call more rushes) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
- The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
- This week, Justin Jefferson is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.3 targets.
- This year, the weak Raiders pass defense has allowed a colossal 70.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 5th-worst rate in football.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are forecasted by the projection model to run just 64.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
- Justin Jefferson’s receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 72.0% to 68.2%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
