Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jayden ReedReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Giants vs. Packers
Right now, Jayden Reed’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-157/+114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-157) after it opened @ 41.5 (-117).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect Jayden Reed to notch 6.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- The Giants defense has conceded the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (179.0) versus WRs this year.
- This year, the deficient Giants defense has been torched for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a monstrous 5.08 YAC.
- The New York cornerbacks profile as the worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- With a 5.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Packers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 57.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by the projections to run only 63.9 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.9 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
