Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jake Ferguson from EV Insight

Jake FergusonReceiving Yards

Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme to skew 7.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.89 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: most in football.

Cons

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Jake Ferguson’s 73.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a remarkable regression in his receiving talent over last season’s 84.5% rate.
When it comes to defensive ends pass-rushing, Philadelphia’s DE corps has been outstanding this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards