Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jack StollReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Giants vs. Eagles
Right now, Jack Stoll’s receiving yards prop is set at 9.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 9.5 (-110) after it opened @ 8.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Jack Stoll has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (35.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (11.8%).
- Jack Stoll has put up quite a few more air yards this year (9.0 per game) than he did last year (1.0 per game).
- The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The New York Giants pass defense has conceded the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (79.4%) versus TEs this year (79.4%).
Cons
- The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
- Jack Stoll has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football among tight ends, completing a mere 63.8% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile.
- The New York Giants have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
13
Receiving Yards
13
Receiving Yards
