Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Greg DulcichReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Right now, Greg Dulcich’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Broncos are a massive 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in football.
Cons
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
- The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers grade out as the 10th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
