Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 31.5 (-131) after it opened @ 30.5 (-115).
Pros
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.
- The predictive model expects Gerald Everett to total 4.3 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Gerald Everett’s 81.6% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a noteworthy growth in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 69.2% rate.
- Gerald Everett grades out as one of the leading tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging an exceptional 5.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- A running game script is suggested by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Broncos defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
- Gerald Everett has posted far fewer air yards this season (16.0 per game) than he did last season (31.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
