Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Gerald Everett from EV Insight

Gerald EverettReceiving Yards

Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 31.5 (-131) after it opened @ 30.5 (-115).

Pros

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.
The predictive model expects Gerald Everett to total 4.3 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Gerald Everett’s 81.6% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a noteworthy growth in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 69.2% rate.
Gerald Everett grades out as one of the leading tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging an exceptional 5.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Cons

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
A running game script is suggested by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Broncos defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
Gerald Everett has posted far fewer air yards this season (16.0 per game) than he did last season (31.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards