Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-114).
Pros
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 7th-most in football.
- In this game, George Kittle is predicted by the projections to position himself in the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 5.9 targets.
- After accumulating 41.0 air yards per game last year, George Kittle has gotten better this year, now sitting at 51.0 per game.
- George Kittle’s 50.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 42.2.
- George Kittle has put up many more adjusted receiving yards per game (60.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).
Cons
- This game’s line implies an extreme rushing game script for the 49ers, who are heavily favored by 14.5 points.
- The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (just 53.6 per game on average).
- In regards to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the 49ers grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
