Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-114).

Pros

Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 7th-most in football.
In this game, George Kittle is predicted by the projections to position himself in the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 5.9 targets.
After accumulating 41.0 air yards per game last year, George Kittle has gotten better this year, now sitting at 51.0 per game.
George Kittle’s 50.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 42.2.
George Kittle has put up many more adjusted receiving yards per game (60.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).

Cons

This game’s line implies an extreme rushing game script for the 49ers, who are heavily favored by 14.5 points.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (just 53.6 per game on average).
In regards to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the 49ers grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards