Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-105/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-115) after it opened @ 33.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to notch 4.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
George Kittle has been among the most effective receivers in football among TEs, averaging a terrific 9.06 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 84th percentile.
George Kittle has been among the top tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging an impressive 6.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Cons

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
George Kittle has notched far fewer air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).
George Kittle’s 34.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 46.2.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 41.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards