Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-105/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-115) after it opened @ 33.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to notch 4.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- George Kittle has been among the most effective receivers in football among TEs, averaging a terrific 9.06 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 84th percentile.
- George Kittle has been among the top tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging an impressive 6.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 80th percentile.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- George Kittle has notched far fewer air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).
- George Kittle’s 34.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 46.2.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 41.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
