Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-115) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense as the 6th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.49 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to earn 9.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- Garrett Wilson has been a big part of his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 23.3% this year, which puts him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the 9th-most receiving yards per game in football (164.0) versus WRs this year.
Cons
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.27 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
- The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
