Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Dolphins vs. Titans
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are heavy underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.
- The model projects DeAndre Hopkins to accumulate 8.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- DeAndre Hopkins has accrued far more air yards this season (120.0 per game) than he did last season (111.0 per game).
- The Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71.2%) versus WRs this year (71.2%).
Cons
- Right now, the least pass-centric team in the league (56.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Tennessee Titans.
- Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.9 plays per game.
- The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- DeAndre Hopkins has totaled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
