Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
The New York Jets pass defense has not been good when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.70 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Dawson Knox has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
Dawson Knox’s 23.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 30.9.
Dawson Knox has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (30.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards