Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
- The New York Jets pass defense has not been good when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.70 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Dawson Knox has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
- Dawson Knox’s 23.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 30.9.
- Dawson Knox has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (30.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
