Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Raiders vs. Vikings
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-110).
Pros
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3-point underdogs.
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game against the Vikings defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
- The leading projections forecast Davante Adams to total 10.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- When it comes to air yards, Davante Adams grades out in the towering 99th percentile among wideouts this year, averaging a colossal 126.0 per game.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Raiders to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.9% pass rate.
- The model projects the Raiders to call the 4th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Raiders have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- Davante Adams has compiled a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (72.0) this year than he did last year (89.0).
- Davante Adams rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in football, completing a mere 59.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 23rd percentile among wide receivers
Projection
THE BLITZ
89
Receiving Yards
89
Receiving Yards
