Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Kincaid from EV Insight

Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).

Pros

The model projects the Bills to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This week, Dalton Kincaid is projected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 89th percentile among tight ends with 5.4 targets.
Dalton Kincaid has been an integral part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 17.1% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Dalton Kincaid has notched a massive 33.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among tight ends.
With an impressive 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (86th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands as one of the leading pass-catching TEs in the league.

Cons

In terms of a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.97 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
This year, the strong Chiefs defense has allowed a mere 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 6th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards