Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).
Pros
- The model projects the Bills to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- This week, Dalton Kincaid is projected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 89th percentile among tight ends with 5.4 targets.
- Dalton Kincaid has been an integral part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 17.1% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Dalton Kincaid has notched a massive 33.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among tight ends.
- With an impressive 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (86th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands as one of the leading pass-catching TEs in the league.
Cons
- In terms of a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.97 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
- This year, the strong Chiefs defense has allowed a mere 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 6th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
