Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
DeVante ParkerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, DeVante Parker’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-113).
Pros
- At a -6-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.
- Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
- DeVante Parker’s 85.9% Route% this season marks a meaningful growth in his pass attack volume over last season’s 68.8% mark.
- DeVante Parker’s talent in generating extra yardage have improved this year, accumulating 4.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 3.39 mark last year.
- This year, the anemic Steelers defense has surrendered the 9th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a massive 8.71 yards.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.8% pass rate.
- After accumulating 61.0 air yards per game last season, DeVante Parker has been a disappointment this season, currently pacing 52.0 per game.
- DeVante Parker’s 32.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a material reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 45.0 figure.
- DeVante Parker’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 64.6% to 57.6%.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.8%) to wideouts this year (62.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
