Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-105) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).

Pros

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
In this game, D.J. Moore is predicted by the projections to finish in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.0 targets.
D.J. Moore has accrued a whopping 94.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Moore’s 78.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for wideouts.
D.J. Moore has accumulated quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).

Cons

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bears to pass on 48.2% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projection model to run only 61.8 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 2.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards