NFL

Bets

December 6, 2023

Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for David Montgomery from EV Insight

FTN Staff

David MontgomeryRushing Yards

Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (+100/-130).

Pros

With a 3-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
At the moment, the 9th-most run-centric team in football (41.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Detroit Lions.
The 6th-most plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
The predictive model expects David Montgomery to earn 13.5 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery’s 84.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season shows a significant gain in his running talent over last season’s 48.0 rate.

Cons

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 61.6 total plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
This year, the tough Chicago Bears run defense has conceded a feeble 81.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 2nd-best in football.
When it comes to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, Chicago’s unit has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards