NFL

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December 6, 2023

Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.1 per game) this year.
With an exceptional 92.0% Route Participation% (88th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton ranks among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.
In this contest, Courtland Sutton is projected by the model to land in the 82nd percentile among WRs with 7.4 targets.
With an outstanding 59.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (82nd percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton has been as one of the top WRs in the NFL in football.

Cons

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (58.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Broncos.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Broncos are projected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Broncos have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
After accruing 100.0 air yards per game last season, Courtland Sutton has seen a big downtick this season, currently averaging 80.0 per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards