Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.1 per game) this year.
- With an exceptional 92.0% Route Participation% (88th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton ranks among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.
- In this contest, Courtland Sutton is projected by the model to land in the 82nd percentile among WRs with 7.4 targets.
- With an outstanding 59.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (82nd percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton has been as one of the top WRs in the NFL in football.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- At the present time, the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (58.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Broncos.
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Broncos are projected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- The Broncos have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
- After accruing 100.0 air yards per game last season, Courtland Sutton has seen a big downtick this season, currently averaging 80.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
