Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 37.5 (-114).
Pros
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
- In this contest, Cole Kmet is projected by the projections to position himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.4 targets.
- Cole Kmet has accrued a massive 27.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Cole Kmet’s 46.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year marks a material boost in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 32.0 figure.
- Cole Kmet’s 84.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season signifies an impressive boost in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 74.3% mark.
Cons
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bears to pass on 48.2% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projection model to run only 61.8 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
- Cole Kmet’s 72.9% Route Participation Rate this season indicates an impressive decrease in his passing offense usage over last season’s 84.0% figure.
- When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
- The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.9%) vs. TEs this year (69.9%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
