Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 37.5 (-114).

Pros

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
In this contest, Cole Kmet is projected by the projections to position himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.4 targets.
Cole Kmet has accrued a massive 27.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Cole Kmet’s 46.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year marks a material boost in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 32.0 figure.
Cole Kmet’s 84.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season signifies an impressive boost in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 74.3% mark.

Cons

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bears to pass on 48.2% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projection model to run only 61.8 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
Cole Kmet’s 72.9% Route Participation Rate this season indicates an impressive decrease in his passing offense usage over last season’s 84.0% figure.
When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.9%) vs. TEs this year (69.9%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards