Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Dolphins vs. Titans
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-129) after it opened @ 30.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are heavy underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.
- The predictive model expects Chigoziem Okonkwo to accrue 5.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 16.0% Target Share this year reflects a material progression in his pass game workload over last year’s 10.8% mark.
- The Dolphins defense has conceded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (53.0) to TEs this year.
Cons
- Right now, the least pass-centric team in the league (56.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Tennessee Titans.
- Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.9 plays per game.
- The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 71.9% to 66.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
